The Week Forward – If At First You Don’t Succeed…

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Attempt to attempt once more.  

Extra stimulus, more “exciting” vaccine news, more cash being tossed round.  This time it is M&A information with Oracle shopping for TikTok and NVidea (NVDA) shopping for ARM Holdings from Comfortable Financial institution (SFTBY) for $40Bn, giving each corporations a pleasant enhance.  Oil (/CL) is up once more on hurricane information however nonetheless pathetic underneath $37.50 however Pure Gasoline (/NG) is popping again to $2.40, ending the bear transfer that took it again to $2.25 from $2.70, which was a 16.66% correction.

It is Quad Witching Week within the markets, when tock index futures, inventory index choices, inventory choices, and single inventory futures expire concurrently.  So we will count on the sudden this week – particularly with a Fed Assembly on Wednesday together with Powell’s speech at 2:30 that day.  We even have Retail Gross sales on Wednesdy morning however, apart from that, it is a fairly uninteresting information week and I do not see what the Fed can do to assist so I do not see this mornng’s exuberance lasting, which suggests the Dow Futures (/YM) needs to be an excellent quick at 27,750 once they cross beneath that line.

It is superb to suppose that it is now September fifteenth and we at the moment are starting our sixth month in captivity since we lastly started worrying about Covid on March fifteenth.  There have been about 80,000 circumstances, largely in China on the time and now there are 29,030,058 this mornng with 6,520,606 within the US alone and, this week, we are going to move 200,000 American deaths from Corona.   29M is 362 TIMES 80,000 and it has been 180 days so we have added 2 China’s per day of victims since March and we’re nonetheless rising at that tempo and the complacency of the markets is beautiful sine any of these 362 80,000 models of contaminated persons are, very clearly, able to infecting 29M extra extra folks.  

How a lot is 362 x 29M?  10.5Bn – that is extra folks than there are on the planet doubtlessly affected within the subsequent 6 months.  After all we’re, theoretically, doing a greater job of containing the unfold however by “we”, I actually do not imply America, which could be very prone to leap ahead in circumstances

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