Don’t choose Sweden till the autumn. That was the message from its state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell in Could and thru the summer season as he argued that Sweden’s preliminary excessive demise toll from Covid-19 can be adopted within the second wave by “a excessive stage of immunity and the variety of instances will most likely be fairly low”.
Now the autumn is right here, and hospitalisations from Covid-19 are at present rising quicker in Sweden than in another nation in Europe, whereas in Stockholm — the centre for each the primary and second waves within the nation — one in each 5 checks is constructive, suggesting the virus is much more widespread than official figures recommend.
Even Sweden’s public well being company admits its earlier prediction that the nation’s Nordic neighbours reminiscent of Finland and Norway would endure extra within the autumn seems flawed. Sweden is at present faring worse than Denmark, Finland and Norway on instances, hospitalisations and deaths relative to the dimensions of their inhabitants.
…The variety of sufferers hospitalised with Covid-19 is doubling in Sweden each eight days at present, the quickest price for any European nation for which knowledge is accessible. Its instances per capita have sextupled previously month to greater than 300 new every day infections per million individuals, near the UK and means forward of its Nordic neighbours.
Right here is more from Richard Milne at the FT. To be clear, evidently lots of the Swedish deaths are as a result of a “dry tinder” impact, so in relative phrases they aren’t doing as a lot worse than you would possibly suppose. Different components of Europe might nicely catch as much as them, at the very least on a “tinder-adjusted” foundation. However in case you are simply asking which predictions of which mannequin are being vindicated right here, it’s that the herd immunity obtained via a partial neutralization of super-spreaders is short-term somewhat than everlasting.
To be clear, I didn’t predict this (or its reverse), however somewhat for a lot of months I’ve been saying we want extra knowledge from Sweden to attract a conclusion. Now now we have extra knowledge.