Level/Counterpoint: The Case for Past Meat


© Reuters

By Liz Moyer and Christiana Sciaudone

Investing.com — Past Meat Inc (NASDAQ:) has soared with the broader embrace of plant-based “meat” merchandise.

They’re a far cry from the particle board vegetable-based merchandise of previous. Past and its opponents are capturing the eye of youthful customers, and alluring huge competitors from established giants within the meals business.

However shares are buying and selling within the stratosphere, main many to wonder if Past can sustain the pattern.

Investing.com’s Liz Moyer argues the bull case for Past Meat (no pun supposed), whereas Christiana Sciaudone writes that it may’t go on ceaselessly. That is .

The Bull Case

If youngsters like it, it should be good, proper?

Analysis by Piper Sandler (NYSE:) discovered that younger individuals have been more and more on board with plant-based meals merchandise, prompting analysts on the agency to boost their value goal on Past Meat earlier this week.

The maker of meatless meatballs, packaged floor meat and sausage merchandise has rallied 157% this 12 months and is nicely above its Might 2019 IPO value of $25. Analysts expect Past to report full 12 months 2020 revenue of 6 cents a share, up from a lack of 29 cents a share final 12 months, and on their technique to forecasted revenue of 52 cents a share for 2021, in accordance with Zacks.

Web income for the second quarter rose 69% from final 12 months. To reply to the Covid-19 disaster, Past repackaged its industrial merchandise on the market to customers throughout the quarter, incurring prices that pushed the underside line to a $10 million loss for the interval.

The corporate identified that it continued to introduce new merchandise throughout the disaster, together with its worth pack known as the Cookout Traditional, which lowered the price of its burgers from practically two-times that of actual meat patties to about 20% extra per pound.

“Although the Cookout Traditional solely reached shops within the final 2 weeks of the second quarter, it accounted for 16 points of the year-over-year quantity development in our U.S. retail enterprise,” the corporate stated. “We sit up for persevering with to serve our customers and clients alike as all of us hope for a decision to the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Meatless meat has grown to a giant business, with gross sales estimated to develop 15% yearly for the subsequent few years to succeed in $27 billion in 2025. It has attracted competitors from newcomers like Not possible Burger to established meals giants like Tyson as customers adapt to a more healthy way of life.

Piper not too long ago requested teenagers about plant-based meat to gauge client preferences. Of the respondents, 47% stated they both eat it now or are open to consuming plant-based meat. The analysis agency additionally discovered that curiosity in plant-based meat rises in youthful individuals, indicating a giant base of potential future development as youngsters get older and set up their very own households.

Past’s burgers are alleged to look, prepare dinner and fulfill appetites like a conventional beef burger. The corporate says its meatless meat is comprised of easy, plant-based substances with out GMOs, soy or gluten.

It has since branched out to meatballs and breakfast sausage hyperlinks, that are offered by way of grocery shops throughout the U.S., together with Kroger (NYSE:), Albertsons, Sprouts, Harris Teeter, Wegmans, and Entire Meals. And it’s poised to start out manufacturing in China on the finish of the 12 months.

The corporate has additionally expanded a relationship with Walmart, tripling the variety of gross sales retailers for Past Burger from 800 areas to greater than 2,400 shops. Past says its merchandise can be found at 112,000 shops in 85 international locations.

The Bear Case

Past Meat is buying and selling at a fabric premium to such huge wigs as Netflix (NASDAQ:) and Tesla (NASDAQ:). Want I say extra?

Past Meat is past purpose, irrespective of how a lot one may like plant-based meat.

The inventory has rallied this 12 months, and shares spike each time the corporate publishes a press launch — even when it is previous information.

The corporate is barely eking out income. Because it went public in Might 2019, it has reported simply two quarters of precise earnings per share — 3 cents and 6 cents. For the second quarter, the newest knowledge obtainable, Past Meat reported a loss per share of 16 cents — that is 8 instances worse than anticipated by analysts. Granted, it beat on income, but it surely took in a grand whole of $113.34 million for the three months.

The corporate is valued at $7.81 billion. Let that sink in.

And do not take my phrase for it. Take a look at the analysts that cowl Past Meat. Shares have two purchase scores, seven holds and 6 sells. Since analysts hate to ever give promote scores, these six have extra weight than it will initially seem.

So, what’s their beef with Past Meat?

In August, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) reiterated its promote ranking with foodservice declining greater than 60% from a 12 months earlier.

That very same month Jefferies (NYSE:) maintained a maintain ranking on the inventory, even whereas boosting the value goal, due to valuation, in accordance with StreetInsider.

Past Meat trades on an enterprise worth to gross sales foundation pretty consistent with Freshpet (NASDAQ:), however at a fabric premium to Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:), Netflix, Tesla and McCormick (NYSE:), “all both higher-growth meals & beverage firms or sector-specific disruptors,” Jefferies analyst Rob Dickerson stated.

In September, JPMorgan (NYSE:) downgraded the inventory to underweight from impartial, citing Not possible Meals’s rising presence on cabinets and lots of eating places not including menu objects.

“We expect the inventory is forward of itself,” JPMorgan analyst Ken Goldman stated, in accordance with StreetInsider. Shares are up 30% since that report was printed. Think about what Goldman thinks now.

Going again to the magic of the press releases, each time one thing is printed, it’s nearly assured that the inventory will rise, irrespective of the content material.

Let’s take the latest instance of a Sept. 29 announcement that Past was doing a significant growth with Walmart (NYSE:), with merchandise being provided at greater than 2,400 areas versus the earlier 800. Chief Government Officer, Founder and President Ethan Brown had let the information slip on the Aug. 4 earnings name. Irrespective of. That press launch helped shares soar 14% the day it got here out, nearly two months later. On previous information. One thing would not odor proper right here.


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