The subtitle of this new paper is “Proof From Washington State Administrative Information,” and the authors are Jennifer Wu, Chenoa Yorgason, Hanna Folsz, Cassandra Handan-Nader, Andrew Myers, Tobias Nowacki, Daniel M. Thompson, Jesse Yoder, and Andrew B. Corridor. Right here is the summary:
A generally expressed concern about vote-by-mail in the USA is that mail-in ballots are despatched to useless individuals, stolen by dangerous actors, and counted as fraudulent votes. To judge how usually this happens in observe, we research the state of Washington, which sends each registered voter a mail-in poll. We hyperlink counted ballots and administrative dying information to estimate the speed at which useless individuals’s mail-in ballots are improperly counted as legitimate votes, utilizing beginning dates from on-line obituaries to deal with false positives. Amongst roughly 4.5 million distinct voters in Washington state between 2011 and 2018, we estimate that there are 14 deceased people whose ballots might need been solid suspiciously lengthy after their dying, representing 0.0003% of voters. Even these few circumstances could replicate two people with the identical identify and beginning date, or clerical errors, relatively than fraud. After exploring the robustness of our findings to weaker circumstances for matching names, we conclude that it appears terribly uncommon for useless individuals’s ballots to be counted as votes in Washington’s common vote-by-mail system.
No, in different phrases. And right here is a tweet storm on the paper by Andy Hall.